ANC slides to about 31% in South Africa’s municipal vote, its lowest share since 1994, as near-final Electoral Commission figures leave 135 councils hung

South Africa’s governing African National Congress heads into Sunday’s final results declaration with fewer than one in three municipal votes, according to the Electoral Commission’s own count. Data behind the commission’s public results dashboard, stamped 10:59 a.m. South Africa time on Nov. 8 (12:59 a.m. PT), shows the ANC on 30.77% of valid votes, the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 24.63% and former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party on 9.74%, with 23,674 of 23,696 voting districts captured. The Economic Freedom Fighters follow on 6.22%, ActionSA on 5.67% and the Inkatha Freedom Party on 4.70%, the same IEC data shows. Voters went to the polls on Wednesday, Nov. 4, DW reports.

Reuters calls the result “a stinging blow” that weakens the ANC’s hand in coalition talks to form city governments, and says its vote share has fallen steadily in local elections over the last 15 years, “due largely to failures in basic services such as water and electricity.” IOL, reading an earlier dashboard figure of 30.81%, says the share marks the party’s worst showing in any election since 1994, almost 15 percentage points below the 45.6% it won in the 2021 municipal elections and less than half the 64.9% it took in 2006. DW notes that the ANC won just over 40% in the 2024 national election, when it lost its parliamentary majority for the first time. Figures moved through the weekend as the last districts came in: the Sunday Independent cites 30.91% at about 98% counted on Saturday, and a Capricorn FM post early Sunday, South Africa time, cites 30.79%.

The council picture shows how far the vote has splintered. The IEC data feed counts 135 hung councils among South Africa’s 213 municipalities, where no party holds more than half the seats, and 74 with a majority party. The ANC holds an outright majority in 53 councils and leads the vote in 128, according to the same data; IOL says hung councils numbered 66 in 2021 and 27 in 2016. The feed credits the ANC with 3,236 council seats so far; IOL compares that with 4,545 in 2021, while Mbalula told reporters the party held 4,548 of 8,794 seats in 2021, the Mail & Guardian reports — a small gap between the two 2021 baselines that this desk could not settle.

In the eight metropolitan councils, the ANC leads the vote in two. The IEC data shows the DA ahead in Cape Town with 56.42% and 133 of 235 seats, an outright majority, and leading without a majority in Nelson Mandela Bay (44.17%, 53 of 120 seats), Tshwane (34.37%, 74 of 214), Johannesburg (34.81%, with 99% of districts counted) and Ekurhuleni (30.68%, 66 of 224). The ANC leads Buffalo City with 41.93% (42 of 100 seats) and Mangaung with 33.91% (35 of 101), and MK leads eThekwini, which includes Durban, with 38.35% at 98% counted. IOL puts the ANC at 20.27% in Johannesburg, down from 58.56% in 2011, and at 16.46% in eThekwini, where it won 61.07% in 2011.

Mbalula did not soften the verdict. “This has been a very catastrophic outcome for the ANC ... as much as we are the largest party, it has been catastrophic for the movement,” he told reporters on Saturday, DW reports. At the briefing at the commission’s national Results Operations Centre in Midrand, Johannesburg, he said internal polling had suggested the party could win at least 34%, according to Sowetan. He tied the losses to water shortages, electricity problems and rising living costs, telling reporters, per the Mail & Guardian: “Our history gave us a responsibility to serve. It does not give us an entitlement to govern.” Reuters quotes him saying: “When the people tell us we have fallen short... the honest answer is not to argue with them but to go home and put our house in order.”

On coalitions, Mbalula signalled no rush. “As we speak, there are no formal talks under way. We expect that such discussions will begin soon and the ANC will approach them in good faith,” he said, per Sowetan, which also quotes him: “But we will not negotiate with anyone with a cap in their hand, begging. We are not in the business of begging for mayorship or any other positions.” He listed the options on the table: “That is not the only option we are looking at. There’s also an option to remain in opposition. There is an option of confidence and supply.” Sowetan says the party’s national executive committee expects to meet this week, and that Mbalula confirmed the ANC had asked for a recount in Gauteng. eNCA says he plans to put the outcome to the party’s national conference in 2027.

The DA moved first. DW quotes DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis: “We have already reached out to many parties over the last 24 hours and will continue to do so today.” In a statement, the party said it would open coalition discussions with “political parties that share a commitment to clean and accountable government, rooting out corruption, service delivery for all, the rule of law, and non-racialism,” Reuters reports. Reuters adds that a DA lead of about 35% to 20% over the ANC in Johannesburg could give Helen Zille, a DA veteran who campaigned on fixing potholes and leaking water pipes, a good chance of becoming mayor, depending on the coalition deals reached.

Pressure inside the ANC shows in the commentary. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a member of the party’s national executive committee, told IOL: “I think all of us as a leadership should take responsibility.” IOL, citing unnamed insiders, reports that President Cyril Ramaphosa now weighs his own future in the party; this desk could not confirm that, and DW says Ramaphosa had not addressed the result as of Saturday evening. DW notes that, earlier in the week, Ramaphosa wrote in his weekly letter that “municipal failures have contributed to declining public trust and confidence in democratic governance.” Louw Nel of Oxford Economics Africa told IOL the result could make the positions of the party’s top seven office-bearers “untenable” and, if coalition talks fail, “lead to calls for Ramaphosa to go a year ahead of schedule.”

Rivals claimed a share of the shift. Dali Mpofu, a member of MK’s high command, read out a statement from party president Jacob Zuma at a Durban briefing on Saturday and said MK had driven the ANC’s losses, IOL reports. Analysts read the scale differently. Political analyst Daniel Silke told AFP, as DW relays: “It's the ANC's worst result in history.” Dale McKinley, another analyst, pushed back on talk of collapse in IOL: “There’s a very big difference between a party gradually losing support and being on its deathbed.” He added that the ANC remains the largest party and that its steepest losses came in the metros: “It’s haemorrhaging, and it has been for quite some time.” IOL reports that Limpopo stands as the only province where the ANC still holds more than half the vote, at 54.44%, against 21.57% in Gauteng and 20.34% in KwaZulu-Natal.

What comes next runs on a clock. Reuters says final results should come at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) on Sunday, Nov. 8 — 8 a.m. PT — and that parties then get 14 days to negotiate before city councils form; IOL says new councils have 14 days to hold first sittings and elect mayors. Sowetan reports that the commission had received 197 objections by 3 p.m. on Saturday. Still open: the final certified shares, the four municipalities the IEC data lists as incomplete, the Gauteng recount the ANC requested, and which parties sign the first metro coalition deals.