A major hurricane seems to crawl up Mexico’s Pacific shoreline on Sunday, close enough to batter the coast without, so far, a confirmed landfall. In its 12:00 PM CST intermediate advisory on October 11, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) placed the eye of Hurricane Simon near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 105.5 West, about 85 miles (140 km) west-northwest of Manzanillo and about 65 miles (100 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes. The NHC headlined the bulletin: “Core of extremely dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Simon moving parallel to the coast of west-central Mexico.”
The NHC put Simon’s maximum sustained winds near 140 mph (220 km/h), with higher gusts, and its minimum central pressure at 940 mb. It said the storm moved north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and expected that motion to continue “over the next day or two.” On the forecast track, the center “is expected to pass very near the coast of west-central Mexico this afternoon and tonight and remain close to the coast on Monday,” the advisory said. Hurricane-force winds reach up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, according to the NHC.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum asked people to stay indoors. “With the approaching impact of Category 4 Hurricane Simon, we urge residents of coastal municipalities in Jalisco, Colima, Nayarit and Michoacan to remain sheltered until authorities officially declare that the danger has passed,” she wrote on X on Sunday, according to Al Jazeera, which reported her post in English.
Rain seems to pose the widest threat. The NHC said Simon “is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday.” It warned that the rain “will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.” Al Jazeera reports that torrential rain had already hit residents living between the Sierra Madre range and the ocean, and that authorities warned hillside communities to brace for mudslides.
The NHC also warned of “a dangerous storm surge” along the immediate coast near and east of where the center approaches land, with “large and destructive waves.” Jalisco Governor Pablo Navarro warned of “high-risk marine conditions” along his state’s coast, with waves as high as eight meters (26 feet), Al Jazeera reports. He shared video of surf washing over sidewalks and wrote: “Here is the current state of Jalisco’s beaches this morning — from Barra de Navidad to Puerto Vallarta — as Hurricane Simon passes through.”
Officials moved schools and residents out of the way. According to Al Jazeera, citing civil protection bulletins, Mexico’s National Civil Protection Coordination placed 28 municipalities in Jalisco and Colima under its highest cyclone alert level and another 93 under a high alert level. Al Jazeera reports that authorities suspended classes in affected areas, began evacuations, and that businesses in Puerto Vallarta boarded up windows and stacked sandbags at their doors.
Whether Simon comes ashore remains unclear. Al Jazeera says it it remains unclear whether the storm will make landfall, and that the greatest risk of a direct hit lies with Cabo Corrientes, a cape in Jalisco that juts into the Pacific. The NHC said that while “some weakening could occur,” it still forecast a major hurricane near the coast on Sunday, and that “more significant weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore or interacts with the higher terrain.”
Simon reached Category 4 on Saturday during what Al Jazeera calls an unusually active Pacific hurricane season. This desk found no reports of deaths or injuries from Simon in the sources it read as of Sunday afternoon. The next full NHC advisory came due at 3:00 PM CST; conditions seem likely to shift quickly as the core tracks along the shore.
